World News: U.S. Presidential Election Weighs on Allies

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Category: World News - Europe

Published on Monday, 02 November 2020 07:38

Written by Olivier Longhi

The 2020 Election has become the center of the world’s media with all eyes focused on the outcome one thing is certain: the power of the United States, to dictate world trade is at stake.

Whatever candidate emerges victorious on the day after the election, the capacity of the U.S. to dictate the content of world trade, remains a mixture of soft and hard power.

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Defined by the American geo-politologist Joseph Nye in 1990, “soft power and hard power,” is the ability to seduce and attract, the concept of soft power puts the notion of power into perspective in an unconventional framework. On the contrary, hard power is a concept used in the context of international relations by advocating realism dictated by the situation. It designates the capacity of a political body to impose its will on other political bodies using military and economic means.

Seen from France, the American presidential election always takes on a fascinating aspect, perhaps because the two nations share a set of common points that they struggle, out of pride, to recognize.

Seen from the United States, one can wonder about the interest nourished by the French presidential election. And for good reason, the choice of French voters for the first of their representative ultimately has little influence on world politics, at a European level, unlike the choice of voters of the first democracy.

No need to deny it, the choice of the next president of the United States, and this since the end of the Second World War, will set the tone for future international relations in a political and health context, for the first complex, for the second every day. more worrying. And what to say about the racial tensions which haunt the United States, quick to reinforce the climate of uncertainty which reigns around this poll or these swing states (States balance) on which the eyes, polls in support, are riveted to the approach of the poll.

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Interest and Point of Fixation

The election of the President of the United States has this invisible force, this almost consubstantial capacity to capture the interest of all the countries on the planet, all having, or having had, from near or far, diplomatic, political, commercial or economic relations with the United States.

It is the prerogative of the great powers, even of the super-powers: that of being essential. And if each President of the United States writes during his time in the White House a page of history that the future will judge by the yardstick of experience and objective analysis, the fact remains that the tenant of 1600 - Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington, unconsciously dictates the content of future exchanges.

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In an a-polar world, the United States still remains a form of fixing point capable of destabilizing or on the contrary appeasing a disoriented world, losing its bearings and this certainty. Not that the United States are the supreme guides of a Humanity in need of confidence but it is possible that if Donald Trump were to be elected, then his election would be interpreted by many populist regimes, official or unofficial, as a confirmation of policies committed.

If, on the other hand, Joe Biden wins, then it is possible to hope for a form of détente on an international scale with China, North Korea, even Europe, often abused since the election of Donald Trump in 2016.

Contradiction and Inertia

Possible but by no means certain because, unpredictable, the United States still often question their partners by their disconcerting attitude and sometimes in total contradiction with contemporary realities such as, among others, the withdrawal of the Paris Agreement.

Because, if Joe Biden is elected, will he accept to reinstate him? Nothing announces it. Anecdotal in view of the weight of the United States, this withdrawal perfectly illustrates the permanent opposition in which the United States evolves, aware of its influence and viscerally attached to its isolationist position.

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There is no anti-Americanism here, but a simple objective observation which highlights the ripple effect that Washington can initiate on a global scale because few countries are capable of modifying the content of international trade.

China? The hypothesis has often been put forward, but it is clear that the point of gravity of global geopolitics is still located - but for how long? - between the West coast and the East coast of the homeland of the Founding Fathers.

Bio: Olivier Longhi has extensive experience in European history. A seasoned journalist with fifteen years of experience, he is currently professor of history and geography in the Toulouse region of France. He has held a variety of publishing positions, including Head of Agency and Chief of Publishing. A journalist, recognized blogger, editor, and editorial project manager, he has trained and managed editorial teams, worked as a journalist for various local radio stations, a press and publishing consultant, and a communications consultant.