President of Doctors For Disaster Preparedness Explains What Will Happen When We Re-open
- Details
- Category: Medical Science
- Published on Thursday, 07 May 2020 16:10
- Written by Dr. Jane M. Orient, M.D.,
If the country re-opens for business, there will be more cases of COVID-19 reported, and more deaths. And the more tests we do, the more cases we will find. If we remain locked down the expectations are the same.
If the country remains locked down, there will be more cases of COVID-19 reported, and more deaths. There will also be increasing economic devastation, which itself causes deaths, and many more deaths from other medical conditions that have been untreated.
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If an epidemic starts in one or a few locations and is promptly identified, it can be contained. But COVID-19 was probably circulating worldwide for at least a month before it was recognized. That's how as many as half the people in certain places got antibodies.
The idea of "flattening the curve" was to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. It was a delaying tactic, with no prospect of ending the disease. In a few places, especially NYC, hospitals are struggling. In most places they are nearly empty and going bankrupt for lack of patients. The "expert" models that predicted 2 million deaths in the U.S. were wildly wrong.
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What is going on now? It is hard to say. Many deaths are coded as COVID-19, without confirmation, because hospitals get paid more for that diagnosis. (Medicare has paid hospitals by the diagnosis for decades.) Half the U.S. COVID-19 have likely been nursing home residents. Did some die of "failure to thrive" because of neglect? Could be—no visitors are allowed in.
What to do? Let the collapse continue until "we have a vaccine"? Does that mean "until (unless?) everybody is vaccinated with a safe and effective vaccine"? There is NO vaccine for most viruses. The influenza vaccine may be only 30% effective, and many serious side effects are reported to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS).
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What you can do NOW to protect yourself and others:
· Stay home if you are sick.
· Wearing a mask in public is a "precaution" backed by little evidence. It probably does not protect you but may help protect others. It has germs all over it, outside and inside, so do not touch it. If it is cloth, wash it with soap and water. Don't wear it while driving—at least one crash may have resulted.
· Take your vitamins. Some doctors recommend 5,000 IU/day of vitamin D3, or even more if exposed to a respiratory virus. In an Indonesian study, 96% of patients who died of COVID-19 were vitamin D deficient, and only 7% of survivors had low or deficient vitamin D. Vitamin C, selenium, zinc, and other nutrients help build resistance.
· Ask your doctor about early treatment with hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, and zinc. It's a new indication for long-established drugs, being used with great success in Brazil, India, France, Israel, Morocco, Algeria, many other nations, and some places in the U.S. Use is discouraged by the FDA and the AMA, who state there is not enough evidence.
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Jane M. Orient, M.D. obtained her undergraduate degrees in chemistry and mathematics from the University of Arizona in Tucson, and her M.D. from Columbia University College of Physicians and Surgeons in 1974. She completed an internal medicine residency at Parkland Memorial Hospital and University of Arizona Affiliated Hospitals and then became an Instructor at the University of Arizona College of Medicine and a staff physician at the Tucson Veterans Administration Hospital. She has been in solo private practice since 1981 and has served as Executive Director of the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons (AAPS) since 1989.
She is currently president of Doctors for Disaster Preparedness. She is the author of YOUR Doctor Is Not In: Healthy Skepticism about National Healthcare, and the second through fifth editions of Sapira's Art and Science of Bedside Diagnosis published by Wolters Kluwer. She authored books for schoolchildren, Professor Klugimkopf's Old-Fashioned English Grammar and Professor Klugimkopf's Spelling Method, published by Robinson Books, and coauthored two novels published as Kindle books, Neomorts and Moonshine.
More than 100 of her papers have been published in the scientific and popular literature on a variety of subjects including risk assessment, natural and technological hazards and nonhazards, and medical economics and ethics. She is the editor of AAPS News, the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness Newsletter, and Civil Defense Perspectives, and is the managing editor of the Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons.
