Election 2016: Clinton Regains Polling Lead Amid Convention Bounce

Hillary Clinton's polling numbers bounced up in the days following the Democratic National Convention, giving her a 4.4-point lead as of August 1, according to the latest data from RealClearPolitics.

That kick reveals Clinton is in the throes of a post-convention surge, the coveted but expected burst of enthusiasm around a candidate after the nomination meeting wraps. In the first few weeks after presidential conventions, polling data ebbs and flows more than normal, so expect these numbers to continue to fluctuate until around mid-August. Graphiq politics site InsideGov visualizes the most recent polling data below.

 

The data from RealClearPolitics reflects an average, but Clinton is up by healthy margins over Donald Trump in just about every poll. An NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll shows Clinton up 50 percent to 42 percent, while CBS has her up by 6 points. The latest CNN/ORC poll clocks Clinton's lead at 9 points. Only the L.A. Times finds Trump with a lead of about 2 points.

Clinton's polling numbers weren't the only data point to get a bounce. Her net favorability scores also improved in the days after the convention. She has a -13.3 percent net favorability rating, her best marks since late March.

 

This election remains a contest between two historically unpopular candidates, to be sure. But Clinton's uptick here could prove critical, especially if she can sustain it amid the recent dip for Trump. The businessman scored his own favorability lift after the Republican convention, but it looks like it is headed for a bit of a downturn.

Indeed, Clinton's boost in the polls and net favorability may be less noteworthy than Trump's coinciding week-long dive. Trump rode his own post-convention bounce to a 1-point lead over Clinton -- his largest so far this year -- but he now sits at 42 percent. The 4.6-point swing that scored Trump his lead has almost completely diminished.

Trump continues his knack for grabbing headlines, even during last week's wall-to-wall coverage of the Democratic convention. First, he encouraged Russia to find and release messages from Clinton's private email server that she used while working at the State Department.

Trump also maintains his feisty -- and unprecedented -- back-and-forth with the parents of Army Capt. Humayun Khan, who was killed in combat in Iraq in 2004. At the Democratic convention, Khan's father gave an impassioned speech about his son's service, ending with a withering rebuke of Trump. "You have sacrificed nothing and no one," Khan said to applause. Trump has described Khan's speech as a vicious attack.

And Trump just told the Washington Post that he wouldn't endorse House Speaker Paul Ryan or Arizona Sen. John McCain in their respective primaries. Both Ryan and McCain spoke out against Trump's statements about the Khan family.

Any one of these comments might have doomed other campaigns, but Trump has proven himself almost bulletproof against traditional election expectations. When Trump doubled down on his slam of McCain's war hero status earlier this year, for example, Trump didn't suffer a hit.

Since these are all still developing storylines, it remains to be seen how (or if) they impact Trump's standing among voters. But keep in mind that Trump's proposed Muslim ban -- which many predicted would sink Trump's candidacy -- didn't knock him off his first-place standing in the Republican primary contest.

More: How Much Did Each Presidential Candidate Spend Per Vote?

Follow InsideGov on Twitter: @inside_gov

Research More About the 2016 Election

Haute Tease

  • Health, Wellness: What Living in New York City Does to Your Health

    Learning what living in New York City does to your health helps current and aspiring residents take charge of their own well-being while making the most of the amazing cultural opportunities of the City That Never Sleeps.  

  • Le Temps des Gourous

    La popularité du chercheur Didier Raoult se mue en phénomène de société où se mêlent méfiance et admiration. Praticien pressé en mal de reconnaissance ou médecin aguerri, l'homme ne laisse pas indifférent au point de fasciner...ou d'agacer.

     
  • San Fran Arts: Maybaum Gallery Presents Kieu Tran and Laina Terpstra

    Maybaum Gallery is excited to present SACRED SPACES, a two-person exhibition with gallery artists Laina Terpstra and Kieu Tran. The show centers a selection of new works from the artists who will be exhibiting together for the first time.

     
  • LOGAN Review - A High Octane, Hard Charging, Tough and Tender, Thrill Ride

    LOGAN, from Twentieth Century Fox, Marvel Entertainment, and TSG Entertainment, presents the last installment of the X-Men series bringing to the screen a hard charging, hard living, uncompromising, take no prisoners, fight to the death finale.

     
  • North Pole Experience and Little America Hotel Partner to Usher in the Holidays

    As the holiday season marches upon us - I had the opportunity to speak with Santa's Ambassador, Scott Pace, who is hard at work in Flagstaff, AZ where he, along with his team of Elf University graduates are preparing a one of a kind gathering that includes a special appearances from Santa as he prepares for his annual round the world blast.

     
  • Holiday Home Cooking: Diestel Turkey Review - When Only the Best Will Do

    As the holiday season quickly approaches, preparations for family gatherings including choosing the menu, that could include a variation of poultry, meats, seafood and pasta now include planning for leftovers which has become as popular as the main meal itself.