World News: Macron Risks Isolation After Dissolution of National Assembly

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Category: World News - Europe

Published on Monday, 17 June 2024 10:03

Written by Olivier Longhi

French President Emmanuel Macron's move to dissolve the National Assembly may have delivered an even more disparate assembly as the first round of early legislative elections are on the horizon and bring with it other unforeseen consequences.

There is a Majority and a Majority

As the first round of the early legislative elections loom, the risk of seeing the election give birth to an even more disparate assembly than the previous one is also emerging. Not to mention the other corollary dangers, including the isolation of the President of the Republic.

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Dissolved for the purpose of clarifying the French political and parliamentary landscape, with the concrete objective of giving national representation an absolute majority, the Assembly expected on the evening of July 7 may also not meet the ambitions of the President of the Republic.

Thus, by counting on the option of a clear majority in the upcoming election, it may be the opposite that will happen, i.e. a constellation of parliamentary groups with an insufficient number of deputies, or barely, to see one of them called to the Hôtel de Matignon and constitute a government with feet of clay as its advantage will be so small.

This situation, which is not at all improbable, would be the last straw in a constitution, intended in 1958 by General De Gaulle as a system freeing itself from the law of parties, as was the case under the Third and Fourth Republics.

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Weakening and Disorganization

Thus, in the absence of the stability sought, it would be a fragile Assembly exposed to all possible coalitions and alliances that would be born of elections that would ultimately be useless.

Of course, there is no evidence that this scenario will be the one that will prevail on the evening of the second round, but it must nevertheless haunt the mind of a President of the Republic who is now at bay.

Because the risk to which Emmanuel Macron is also exposed is to weaken himself. Not to the point of having to resign from his office, but to be caught in the vice of an increasingly likely cohabitation that would make him a substitute, the Republic governing by decree and no longer via a government that would be devoted to him.

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The last element to which this dissolution exposes, after the possibility of an assembly even more disorganized than it is to date and the isolation of the President of the Republic, the possibility of seeing a climate of mistrust even more pronounced than it is towards the State and those who serve it is established in France.

This social divide, to use the words of Jacques Chirac during the 1955 electoral campaign (even if it did not exactly take up the elements that prevail today) could therefore worsen even more as it would divide the country into several parts, some ready or capable of getting along on the margins, others totally irreconcilable.

A high-flying political calculation, the dissolution could turn into an electoral fiasco for the President of the Republic, due to an approach that is too approximate or poorly documented to public opinion since nearly 68% of the French (Ipsos Political Barometer - Le Point; December 2023) have an unfavorable opinion from the Head of State.

In the end, whatever the scenario that will prevail on the evening of July 7, President Macron could probably, if it is not already the case, bite his fingers for having invoked Article 12 of the Constitution, that of dissolution.

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Bio: Olivier Longhi has extensive experience in European history. A seasoned journalist with fifteen years of experience, he is currently professor of history and geography in the Toulouse region of France. He has held a variety of publishing positions, including Head of Agency and Chief of Publishing. A journalist, recognized blogger, editor, and editorial project manager, he has trained and managed editorial teams, worked as a journalist for various local radio stations, a press and publishing consultant, and a communications consultant.