Faced with a military and diplomatic escalation that he had not necessarily envisioned; Vladimir Putin now knows he is caught in a spiral with only limited options and from which he will not emerge victorious. Explanations.

To say that tension is rising between Russia and Western powerhouses, led by the United States, is an understatement. Thus, with the announcement of the deployment of 3,000 soldiers in support of NATO in Eastern Europe, Washington and Joe Biden are laying the foundations for a balance of power that will rise even more if Moscow responds to this deployment with new troop arrivals on the Russian-Ukrainian border.

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The question that is now emerging, of the most legitimate, is therefore when will Russia cross the diplomatic Rubicon at the risk of exposing itself to the groans of the international community? And will Vladimir Putin's hubris be tamed by the pragmatic realism of Westerners? This is also a meaningful question.

However, the head of the Kremlin knows that to exist on a global scale and on the international scene, Russia needs to go beyond its status as a simple producer of gas and oil. And this is where the origin of the unrest that has prevailed since last November on the Ukrainian border lies, which ultimately serves only to attest to the military and diplomatic weight of a marginalized country.

Chain Reaction and Timing

If Ukraine remains a major objective for Vladimir Putin, arguing that it is fully part of the Russian identity (although martyred by Stalin in the thirties), fighting the idea that it can integrate NATO at the risk of bringing the Western camp back to its borders, it also appears that any attempt to invade Ukraine is It would end in a chain reaction of which Vladimir Putin knows the immediate or medium-term effects.

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However, in order to be able to boast of this international legitimacy and finally take advantage of the effects of globalization that Russia has hitherto been deprived of, to finally exist diplomatically, politically, and economically Vladimir Putin knows that the invasion of Ukraine is essential for Russia.

However, caught in his own trap, denouncing for the purpose of victimization the hysteria of the Occident in front of the Russian maneuvers on the Russian-Ukrainian border, advancing the idea that the Westerners have not understood the Russian concerns, to which nothing obliged them this said, Vladimir Putin is now playing the game of a form of delay that allows him especially in the long term not to lose the game of failure engaged, secretly hoping for a draw synonymous with the status quo.

Aware that the invasion of Ukraine would unleash Western wrath on Russia possibly weakening its position as Head of State, Vladimir Putin calls with half a voice for a peaceful resolution in any case dialogued.

Manipulation and Fiasco

Underestimating the United States' distrust of Russia and its interest in the eastern borders of one of its areas of influence, Western Europe, Vladimir Putin certainly did not think that his inclinations towards Ukraine would provoke such a reaction.

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The former KGB spy, yet so skilled in the processes of manipulation, showed a clear lack of discretion, consciously or unconsciously, in his maneuvers to annex Ukraine. The biased, even obsolete, analysis that was his, considering that Ukraine, too far removed from the concerns of the United States indulging in a form of unspoken isolationism, would arouse no interest from Washington, at most a protest of pure form, proved false.

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Joe Biden, who last August had to assume the fiasco of the evacuation of US troops and nationals in Afghanistan, also knows that the upcoming mid-term elections in 2022 could be influenced by the diplomatic outcome of the Ukrainian crisis, even if it was conducted under the aegis of NATO. For having thus misread or misunderstood Alexis de Tocqueville (On Democracy in America), Vladimir Putin did not necessarily retain the fact that politics and foreign states are often commanded by the domestic policies and requirements of the latter.