World News: French President Emmanuel Macron and The Budget Impasse

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Category: World News - Europe

Published on Monday, 21 October 2024 13:27

Written by Olivier Longhi

French President Emmanuel Macron and his Macronist group, which is lost and in search of political references, squabble over the 2025 budget which seems far from being adopted and the amendment to the initial text highlights the fractures within.

Between the recourse to 49.3 that is looming and the Macronist group that is tearing itself apart over the budget, France is preparing to face a new political crisis, unless it is the same one that has been renewed since the re-election of Emmanuel Macron in April 2022.

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For the time being, the question is left to historians who will be able to analyse it in the light of the hindsight of the past, but in concrete terms, it is becoming more and more obvious that Michel Barnier's government is getting bogged down in an impasse from which it will be very difficult to extricate itself.

Between the theory of the proposed budget and the reality of the adoption of the text, which has been amended many times since its presentation, an unfathomable gulf has opened up between supporters of the restoration of public accounts and the supporters of the Welfare State. To tell the truth, there is nothing exceptional in this most banal political scheme.

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Where the problem lies is in the components of the pros and anti-austerity, the most diplomatic will say rigor. And it is in the ranks of the early Macronists that the most violent dissensions are to be found, to the point that it is not inappropriate to use the term split between the different parties.

Under the indifferent gaze, according to his own will, of the Head of State, the foundation of Emmanuel Macron's first and second five-year terms is crumbling and disintegrating to such an extent that the tenant of the Elysée Palace finds himself totally isolated. Is it premature to talk about an almost pathetic end to his reign to the point of seeing it end as soon as possible?

While nothing is less certain, the probability of seeing Michel Barnier's government fall in the coming months or weeks is by no means a far-fetched hypothesis, nor is the organisation of new elections on the horizon. This is how Macronism lived, between voluntarism and personal seduction, the idea of breaking with the old world, without finding the foundations of the new, to finally return to abhorred but unavoidable modes of operation with regard to the structure of the State.

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The experience will therefore have been short-lived and the hope of witnessing the birth of a new state in a Republic regenerated with it. The disappointment could be great, but it sanctions a simple reality, namely that one does not reform a state as old as France, populated by a population so easily attached to its comfort and its principles. Perhaps too far ahead or too ambitious, Macronism has not been able to find the balance between liberalism and progressivism, between social democracy and the new social order.

From crises to upheavals, from the Yellow Vests to the failed dissolution and the systematic use of 49.3 under the government of Elizabeth Borne, Macronism is looking for itself, like Macronism, like an unfinished canvas, like the current five-year term, which could be summed up in this excerpt from the verses of T.S. Eliot: "The Hollow Man" (1925)

Life is very long

Between desire

And the spasm

Between power and existence.

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Bio: Olivier Longhi has extensive experience in European history. A seasoned journalist with fifteen years of experience, he is currently a professor of history and geography in the Toulouse region of France. He has held a variety of publishing positions, including Head of Agency and Chief of Publishing. A journalist and recognized blogger, editor, and editorial project manager, he has trained and managed editorial teams, worked as a journalist for various local radio stations, was a press and publishing consultant, and was a communications consultant.