World News: Endless Tensions in the Middle East

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Category: World News

Published on Monday, 15 April 2024 13:31

Written by Olivier Longhi

If de-escalation is the watchword in the Middle East crisis, it also appears that the United States has embarked on a risky balancing act with no option for a quick resolution of tensions. Yet, the latter do exist.

By declaring that it does not wish for an escalation with the Islamic Republic of Iran while continuing to support the State of Israel, the United States is engaging in a diplomacy that some would describe as schizophrenic, even tautological, as the two notions seem both opposed and impossible to reconcile.

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However, the gamble launched by the Biden administration, largely influenced by the elections next November which impose a certain firmness towards Iran as well as a form of tacit understanding towards Israel, is extremely risky. What for?

Firstly, because Iran, although isolated on the international scene and plagued from within by anti-mullahs social discontent, has nevertheless managed to attack Israel, which is bogged down in its conflict with Hamas, which is itself supported, like Hezbollah, by Iran. Negotiating with Tehran, an option that has proven to be one of the most compromised to date, is a balancing act that contrasts with the diplomacy generally practiced by the United States.

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Iranian Threat

It's not that Washington doesn't know how to show finesse in this area, but the oriental sensibility generally does not fit well with the Anglo-Saxon pragmatism on the other side of the Atlantic. However, if Israel and the United States want to hope for an end, even temporary, to the Iranian threat, they will necessarily have to concede compromises that only a balanced and measured negotiation will allow.

However, if the United States were at the helm, this option could take shape and take shape, as was the case during Barack Obama's mandate on the Iranian nuclear issue concluded by the Vienna agreement in 2015. But Washington also must deal with Israel, which is on the front line geographically and politically, and whose diplomatic clout is well established. As Israel's main backer, the United States finds itself almost trapped, given its involvement in the alliance with Israel.

All that remains is to find a diplomatic path capable of satisfying Iran but also its satellites, Hamas, and Hezbollah, so many pebbles in the shoe of the Hebrew State, far from having gotten rid of the two-armed movements.

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Likud or Labor

And the negotiation is proving even more difficult in view of the diametrically opposed demands of Israel and Iran. However, a solution exists, which is certainly improbable to date but not impossible. The departure of Benjamin Netanyahu from the Israeli Cabinet and the fall of the mullahs in Iran would open new possibilities for negotiation.

Regarding the first hypothesis, it will be necessary to wait until the next general elections to see whether Likud or Labor will win, even if the Israeli Labor Party today supports the offensive against Hamas and is united behind the government regarding the position to adopt vis-à-vis Iran.

As far as Iran is concerned, the answer will only come from within via the revolt movement initiated more than 12 months ago and which could potentially overthrow the Islamic regime. But its current weakness, because of the repression carried out, compromises, if not prohibits, any hope of rapid change.

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Bio: Olivier Longhi has extensive experience in European history. A seasoned journalist with fifteen years of experience, he is currently professor of history and geography in the Toulouse region of France. He has held a variety of publishing positions, including Head of Agency and Chief of Publishing. A journalist, recognized blogger, editor, and editorial project manager, he has trained and managed editorial teams, worked as a journalist for various local radio stations, a press and publishing consultant, and a communications consultant.