World News: A Strange Design That Builds US Prominence in the Middle East

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Category: World News - Europe

Published on Sunday, 05 January 2020 12:20

Written by Olivier Longhi

By assassinating one of the pillars of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Donald Trump takes the risk of an uncontrollable military and diplomatic escalation. Yet the presidential plan may be different. Let's take a closer look.

By choosing to assassinate General Ghassem Soleimani, one of the pillars of the Tehran regime, on Iraqi soil, Donald Trump has openly chosen military and diplomatic escalation against an enemy declared for four decades now.

Several reasons may explain this decision, which has far-reaching consequences for the entire Middle East and which leaves one wondering about Donald Trump's perception of the global and regional diplomatic situation. (Lemonde.fr: https://www.lemonde.fr/chroniques-de-la-presidence-trump/article/2020/01/05/president-trump-aniii-outrance-et-court-termisme-diplomatique_6024824_5077160.html ).

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First, the American-Iranian litigation dating from 1979, the date on which fifty two American diplomats had been held hostage for a year in their own embassy on Iranian soil by the deputies of the new Islamic republic, and which remains the matrix of relations between these two countries.

The second would appear to be Donald Trump's desire to limit the spread in Iraq of Shiism, a radical variant of Islam, deemed too vindictive and too bellicose for the taste of the White House resident.

Vulnerability and Sanctions

The third could be Donald Trump's intention to reaffirm the influence of the United States in the Middle East. The option is not negligible because a few months before the presidential election and to satisfy an electorate in lack of supposed superiority, which expected more a withdrawal of the Boy's than their departure for the zone, the American president may also want to ask himself as war chief and defender of the founding principles of the United States. (leschos.fr: https://www.lesechos.fr/monde/etats-unis/en-pleine-crise-avec-liran-trump-mobilise son-electorat-religious-1160258).

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However, between speculation and reality, there may also be a diplomatic purpose which will require confirmation or denial. By eliminating one of the strong men of the Iranian regime, the United States shows that the men, the pillars of the Islamic Revolution are ultimately vulnerable wherever American interests are present.

Another unacknowledged ambition, also to verify, instill the idea in Iranian opinion that the current regime can only bring the country to chaos, proof is the elimination of one of its most powerful defenders. Playing the card of the Iranian street’s progressive reversal of opinion against the regime is, however, a risky bet as the Iranian people appear loyal to the Guardians of the Revolution.

Diplomatic Impotence and Slowness

But the multiplication of economic and diplomatic sanctions, the country's isolation on the international scene and the polite protests of the great world powers frightened by American interventionism could encourage the creation of a political opposition on which the States -United would not fail to support to overthrow the regime.

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A credible hypothesis when we know how much Iran seeks today to seduce a number of Western companies to serve and support its development. Also, let us remove all ambiguity: the ultimate objective of the United States and which prevails since 2019 is well the disappearance of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Just as the Administration of former President George W. Bush had sworn the ouster of Saddam Hussein, this same Administration has been working for more than forty years now to the loss of the Iranian regime. Without achieving this, proof of the political robustness of the regime and its social roots.

Faced with diplomatic helplessness, or more precisely the slowness of the effects of the sanctions imposed, Donald Trump opted for provocation by precipitating the history that binds the two countries. Again, betting, if it is one, is extremely risky because the Close Orient is one of the most explosive, if not the most explosive, regions of the world.

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And Iran, a regional power with real influence which can rely on equally powerful networks, starting with Hezbollah, also knows, and rightly so, that the standoff that opposes it to the United States is far from being lost in advance.

Bio: Olivier Longhi has extensive experience in European history. A seasoned journalist with fifteen years of experience, he is currently professor of history and geography in the Toulouse region of France. He has held a variety of publishing positions, including Head of Agency and Chief of Publishing. A journalist, recognized blogger, editor and editorial project manager, he has trained and managed editorial teams, worked as a journalist for various local radio stations, a press and publishing consultant, and a communications consultant.

*Graphic by Janet Walker