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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pursued, since the October 7, massacre, the annihilation of Hamas, and now the destruction of Iranian Hamas leaders, or is the new wave all about securing the United States support.

The Israeli offensive against Iran, supported by the United States, has only resulted in a diplomatic status quo far from leading to the fall of the mullahs' regime. Are the bombings of Iranian nuclear sites and the fall of the Iranian regime a ploy to secure the support of the United States?


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The question is not so much which of the two belligerents, between Israel and Iran, will agree to the ceasefire. The question is above all to know what follow-up will be given to this blitzkrieg that has destabilized the Middle East without precipitating, far from it and contrary to Israeli hopes, the fall of the Iranian regime.

One thing is clear: What now? Israel has tried to bring down a regime that has sworn without loss without succeeding, so the threat is still whole and significant; the United States, by bombing Iran's strategic nuclear sites, has asserted its strength but finds itself in the same situation as Israel: the Mullahs' regime, initiated in 1979, is still standing. Because to see it collapse, it is clear that only the Iranian people are able to turn the table upside down and install a democracy in Iran.


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Credible Solution

The Iraqi example, through which the United States thought, by the removal of Saddam Hussein, to impose democracy like a packet of washing powder on an average consumer, ended in a bitter failure that more than twenty years later is still not definitively resolved.

To imagine bringing down the Iranian regime through a joint and coordinated military intervention between Israel and the United States is a diplomatic illusion that clashes with the solidity of an armored regime against any attempt at destabilization. On the other hand, imagining support for the Iranian opposition, whatever its origin, may prove to be a credible and, above all, realistic solution.

It will be much more difficult for Tehran to contain its own population than it is to fight against missiles fired from Israel, no matter how deadly they are. The power of the Iranian opposition's latent or semi-official protest could therefore become a real threat, taking advantage of the regime's exposure to external attacks.

This form of weakening, to be exploited without delay, at least before the regime heals the wounds of Israeli and American attacks, is a boon for Iranian society, which is in favour of regime change, certainly, but not of a replacement dictated by a foreign power.


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Means Deployed

The blitzkrieg waged by Israel therefore has a great chance of ending as it began, that is, without a precise idea other than the vague desire to bring down the Iranian regime, impossible as it stands and in view of the means deployed, namely only by air.

The only result of this offensive was to further disturb a Middle East that was already at its highest level in view of Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza. Another result is to ensure the unwavering support of the United States for Israel, which has fallen into the trap of the alliance at all costs.

Benjamin Netanyahu, weakened by the conflict in the Gaza Strip for the moment hopeless, needed to restore his image as head of state while confirming Israeli hegemony in the Middle East. The Israeli Prime Minister's diplomatic calculation, cynical and deadly, has finally worked very well. But for what result?


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Bio: Olivier Longhi has extensive experience in European history. A seasoned journalist with fifteen years of experience, he is currently a professor of history and geography in the Toulouse region of France. He has held a variety of publishing positions, including Head of Agency and Chief of Publishing. A journalist and recognized blogger, editor, and editorial project manager, he has trained and managed editorial teams, worked as a journalist for various local radio stations, was a press and publishing consultant, and was a communications consultant. 

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